Payame Noor University Applied Research of Sport Management 2345-5551 12 4 2024 05 21 Identifying and Analysing the Most Likely Scenario for the Development of Futsal in Iran (A Prospective Study) Identifying and Analysing the Most Likely Scenario for the Development of Futsal in Iran (A Prospective Study) 29 42 10574 10.30473/arsm.2024.66105.3722 FA Ali Abolhoseini PhD in Sport Management, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran. Habib Honari Professor,, Sport Management, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran. 0000-0002-1279-427X Journal Article 2022 11 15 This research aims to identify and analyze the most likely scenario for the development of futsal in Iran. It is based on the future research approach according to its nature and is  applied in terms of purpose and survey in terms of method. The statistical population includes all experts who have the necessary knowledge and experience in the field of championship and professional sports and futsal. The sampling method is snowball. 12 interviews were conducted with experts. According to the nature of the subject, various techniques and tools were used, such as interviews, expert panels, and questionnaires. In data processing, several techniques were used, including Delphi technique, cross effects analysis, structural analysis, balance of mutual effects, and Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software. 34 factors affecting the development of futsal were identified. Using the structural analysis method (cross effects) and Mic Mac software, the position of each factor in the obtained system was determined, and 8 drivers were identified as the most key future makers in the development of futsal in the country, and by using them, the most probable scenario for the development of futsal was obtained. All 8 propellants will happen in a 10-year time horizon in a disaster mode. The results of this research can be effective as a guide in estimating and forecasting the future of Iranian sports organizations that are related to futsal sports and show a path that will lead to distance from critical conditions and approach to ideal conditions and help the quantitative and qualitative development of futsal This research aims to identify and analyze the most likely scenario for the development of futsal in Iran. It is based on the future research approach according to its nature and is  applied in terms of purpose and survey in terms of method. The statistical population includes all experts who have the necessary knowledge and experience in the field of championship and professional sports and futsal. The sampling method is snowball. 12 interviews were conducted with experts. According to the nature of the subject, various techniques and tools were used, such as interviews, expert panels, and questionnaires. In data processing, several techniques were used, including Delphi technique, cross effects analysis, structural analysis, balance of mutual effects, and Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software. 34 factors affecting the development of futsal were identified. Using the structural analysis method (cross effects) and Mic Mac software, the position of each factor in the obtained system was determined, and 8 drivers were identified as the most key future makers in the development of futsal in the country, and by using them, the most probable scenario for the development of futsal was obtained. All 8 propellants will happen in a 10-year time horizon in a disaster mode. The results of this research can be effective as a guide in estimating and forecasting the future of Iranian sports organizations that are related to futsal sports and show a path that will lead to distance from critical conditions and approach to ideal conditions and help the quantitative and qualitative development of futsal https://arsmb.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_10574_ca3aac3fe42b3528f3798ab4002ac748.pdf