Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
- zeinab al sadat seyedabdollahi 1
- Ali Mohammad Safania 2
- Salah Naghshbandi 3
- Mohsen Bagherian Farahabadi 4
1 student
2 Islamic Azad university Amol branch
3 Member of the scientific faculty of Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Unit, Tehran
4 Department of Physical Education Sport Management, Science and Research Branch,Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
The goal of this study was to conduct scenario-based future studies of the advancement of equestrian sports in the horizon of 2031 using a scenario writing approach. This research involved both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods and employed a strategic future study approach. Participants in this research were experts in the field of equestrian sports. In the qualitative section, purposive sampling was utilized, and 25 interviews were conducted based on theoretical saturation. In the quantitative section, sampling was criterion-based, and 10 out of the 25 participants from the first stage were selected as a strategic council for further work based on criteria chosen by the research group. Data collection tools included semi-structured interviews and matrices with dimensions of 38×38 and 9×9, the validity and reliability of which were confirmed. Qualitative data analysis utilized thematic analysis, while structural analysis and scenario writing were employed for quantitative data analysis. The findings indicated the existence of 4 uncertainties, represented by a total of 38 influential internal and external forces on equestrian sports. These uncertainties include "horse tourism," "female equestrianism," "increase in horse imports and decrease in exports," and "emerging technologies," which form the basis of 2 scenarios: "leaping out of isolation" and "the deadlock." Understanding the narratives of each scenario and comparing their desirability can serve as a basis for designing future equestrian sports activities to help maintain Iran's competitive edge in a flexible and responsive manner.
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