سنجش اثر تولید صنعت ورزش بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌های ایران به روش GMM

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران.

10.30473/arsm.2025.68937.3798

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین اهداف توسعه منطقه‌ای، تخصیص بهینه منابع محـدود سرمایه فیزیکی و انسانی در جهت دست‌یابی به رشد اقتصادی است. صنعت ورزش به‌عنوان یک صنعت نوپدید شامل کلیه فعالیت‌های مرتبط با تولید و توزیع محصولات ورزشی است که در بازار قیمت‌گذاری می‌شود. هدف اصلی این پژوهش برآورد سهم تولید ناخالص داخلی ورزش (GDSP) در رشد اقتصادی استان‌های ایران در دوره 1390-1400 است. به این منظور پس از محاسبه GDSP به تفکیک استان‌های ایران، این متغیر به‌عنوان یک نهاده در تابع تولید کاب-داگلاس به دو عامل دیگر تولید شامل نیروی کار و سرمایه افزوده شد. همچنین امکان تعامل بین دو نهاده اصلی تولید یعنی نیروی انسانی و سرمایه با تولید ناخالص ورزش نیز در مدل برآورد شده لحاظ شد. روش مدل‌سازی مبتنی برداده‌های تابلویی، شامل دو روش مدل رگرسیون با اثرات تصادفی و مدل رگرسیون پویا با برآوردگر GMM است. نتایج برآوردها شواهد آماری مبنی بر اثرات مثبت تولید ناخالص ورزش بر رشد اقتصادی ارائه می‌دهد. 1) اثر تولید ناخالص ورزش بر رشد اقتصادی مثبت و معناداراست بطوریکه هر یک درصد افزایش در GDSP به قیمت واقعی تا 17/0درصد رشد اقتصادی به قیمت واقعی را افزایش داده است. 2) آثار تعاملی دو نهاده نیروی کار و سرمایه با GDSP اگرچه کوچک بوده، به‌ترتیب به میزان 05/0 و 07/0 درصد، اما مثبت و معنادار بوده و رشد اقتصادی را افزایش داده ‌است. مهم‌ترین رهیافت این پژوهش ضرورت برنامه‌ریزی در جهت گسترش سرمایه‌گذاری در زیرساخت‌ها و فعالیت‌های ورزشی با هدف بهره‌برداری از ظرفیت این صنعت در رشد اقتصادی استان‌های ایران است.

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